Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Greenspan sees 1st half 2009 U.S. housing recovery

One bright spot in the housing lookout, Reuters reports:  

 

Alan Greenspan said the U.S. housing market will begin to recover in the first half of 2009, according to an article he wrote for Emerging Markets magazine published on Friday.  He believes that "frozen credit markets will thaw 'as frightened investors take tentative steps toward reengagement with risk.'" and "More conclusive signs of pending home price stability are likely to become visible in the first half of 2009…"

 

Some questions still need to be answered: "How much overall deleveraging is going to be required to induce global investors to again become committed holders, at modest interest rates, of the liabilities of the world's financial intermediaries?" and how much "…additional bank capital required to stabilize the financial system remains in question as well."

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Mountain House & Tracy statistics

Notes:  Mountain House has sold for just slightly above Tracy in terms of price per square foot, but Tracy has lower prices because the homes are on average 700 square-feet smaller, so similar sized homes in MH & Tracy should sell for about the same.  MH has a much higher percentage of short sale listings and for both Tracy and MH, almost all sales are REO.  REO in both sell for less and sell in fewer days.
 
With the Fed bailout, it is probably going to be a good time to buy within the next few months because hopefully the bailout will slow down the number of REO's put on the market.  With pending home sales jumping 7.4% from July to August, another fed rate cut (fed funds rate now at 1.5%, prime interest rate is fed funds + 3%) home prices may hit the bottom soon.
 
Mountain House:
  All active REO Short
#active 105 24 65
$/sq-ft $143 $135 $140
DOM 88 71 98
list price $373K $335K $366K
  Sold since 7/8 REO Short
#sold 72 57 5
$/sq-ft $139 $135 $147
DOM 43 39 91
sold price $379k $368k $345k
Tracy:
  All active REO Short
#active 629 273 283
$/sq-ft $140 $131 $137
DOM 76 55 95
list price $278k $245k $277k
  Sold since 7/8 REO Short
#sold 561 479 43
$/sq-ft $138 $135 $142
DOM 45 38 105
sold price $277k $267k $318k


--
Thanks,

John R Andersen, REALTOR
Broker/Owner, Andersen Properties
Phone: 925-596-4774
Fax: 866-406-2654
Internet:  www.trivalley-properties.com

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

tri-valley stats

 

 

Thanks,

John R Andersen, REALTOR®

Broker/Owner, Andersen Properties

phone: (925) 596-4774

fax: (866) 406-2654

 

 

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

August foreclosures hit another record high

Again, you hate for your area to make national headlines on a negative note.  CNN reports that more than 101,000 homeowners in California received foreclosure notices in August, about 1 in every 130 households.   And Stockton still leads the country with 1 in 50 households received a foreclosure filing during the month.  "You go up and down the [central valley] and that's where you're seeing the carnage," said Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's director of marketing.

 

Since I get a lot of questions about the foreclosure process, here are three stages of foreclosures:

 

Notice of Default.  This is what the “Trustee” (a Trustee holds naked legal title to property, is a neutral third party between the lender [beneficiary] and the borrower [debtor, homeowner or trustor]) records with the county in which the home is located and becomes public record.  This happens after the homeowner, or “Trustor” becomes behind in their payments.  A copy of this notice must be sent to the homeowner within 30 days of recording.  How far behind until a Notice of Default is recorded?  Who knows, it depends on how much equity is in the home, how willing the owner and the bank are to work together, and how busy the lender is with other business.  It could be a month or a year.  One important note is that once the Notice of Default has been recorded, the Trustee has to wait three months until going to the next step.  So, Notice of Default doesn’t mean a whole lot because the homeowner has three months to get current on payments again, but could be a sign that they are getting distressed.

 

Notice of Sale or Notice of Trustee’s Sale.  A minimum of three months after the Notice of Default was recorded, the lender can then record the Notice of Sale or Notice of Trustee’s Sale with the county.  This means that they can take the home to auction after a minimum of 20 days.  There is a requirement that the Trustee must publish this notice of sale in a “newspaper of general circulation in the area where the property is located” at least once a week for 20 days, not more than 7 days apart and must be publicly posted in the city in which the home is located.  Important:  The homeowner has until 5 days before the Trustee’s sale to get current on payments, also known as the “reinstatement period”.

 

Trustee’s Sale.  This is also known as the “auction”.  The primary lender (first mortgage) can bid on the property without paying any money at all.  Whether they bid or not depends on how much equity is in the home.  The  junior lender(s), (second mortgage, etc.) if any, can also bid on the property.  Any old “Joe-Schmoe” can bid on the property, but has to pay cash on the spot, no escrow, no contingencies, no nothing.  Pretty risky because there is no protection for the bidder especially if the foreclosed homeowner trashes the place prior to getting booted out, but could be a good deal if one does one’s homework prior to the sale.

 

When a home is foreclosed where does the money go?  First, proceeds go to the Trustee’s fees, costs, and sale expenses, which can run around 40% of the value of the home, one of the reasons lenders don’t like homes to go to foreclosure.  Next the primary lender (first mortgage) gets paid, and depending on how much equity, will be enough to satisfy the loan or not.  If there is anything left over, the junior lien holders get paid (which is why second mortgages have higher interest rates because they are at higher risk of not getting paid at a foreclosure) then the borrower gets paid.  In this market, nobody past the primary lender is getting paid, and seldom they are getting the full amount.  So a short sale can be good for everybody because the lender doesn’t have to pay Trustee’s costs.

 

Eat together, stay together?

A study by the University of Missouri claims that families that eat together, stay together.  The lead author claims that “…the tasks that surround mealtime, including preparing the food and cleaning up after the meal, can strengthen the relationship because of the additional shared time.”

 

So how does this relate to housing?  It underscores the importance of the kitchen.  If you can, opt for the home with a large kitchen or at least one that can accommodate more than one person.  “D” replied that “Eating together may be fine, but our kitchen is so small when we try to clean up together it just leads to frustration.”  If you can’t swing that, look for open floor plans where the kitchen is open to the dining room, living room, and/or family room.  That way you can still be in close proximity while food is being prepared.

 

Saturday, September 6, 2008

Update on REO and Short situation

Since we last reported in May, the REO and Short sale situation has gotten a bit worse.  Although the number of total listings has gone down since May, the percentage of those listings that are REO or Short has gone up in all areas of concern.  We also added East Bay as a whole for regional comparison.  At least Dublin, Livermore, and Pleasanton are much better than the East Bay average.  We want to see the percentage go down, and at least until then, the market won’t pick up.  Good sign for buyers, bad for sellers.

 

Detached Listings:

REO

Short

Total Listings

% REO

% Short

% REO or Short

Livermore

59

54

362

16.30%

14.92%

31.22%

Dublin

14

15

110

12.73%

13.64%

26.36%

Pleasanton

4

16

255

1.57%

6.27%

7.84%

Brentwood

94

156

369

25.47%

42.28%

67.75%

Antioch

400

307

838

47.73%

36.63%

84.37%

East Bay

2743

2795

10919

25.12%

25.60%

50.72%

 

Friday, June 20, 2008

Home Buying Statistics

According to www.b4u.com, The average American looks at eight houses before buying one.

According to the National Association of Realtors, the typical first-home buyer is 32 years old and has a household income of fifty to sixty thousand dollars. The typical second-home buyer is 46 years old, is married, and has a household income of nearly ninety thousand dollars.

Saturday, June 14, 2008

Judge decides against Pleasanton schools in Neal Elementary fight

Too bad.  Pleasanton missed an opportunity to add to their award winning and prestigious school district because of what seems to be a technicality.  They could have had developers finance Neal Elementary school, which would have been the 11th elementary school in the district.  But a judge found that the contract "...did not comply with state competitive bidding statutes..." and that the agreement was "too vague".

Housing: It'll get worse

If you believe this article, it sounds like housing prices could still decline another 10-20%.  I think this situation is plausible but not likely in the Tri-Valley.  Livermore might get the worst of it especially considering the impact from the Lab layoffs compounding the large inventory.  However, we have started to see bargain hunters move on homes because we are seeing a large number of pending homes in the Tri-Valley. 
 
Sellers should be realistic about the market and realize that your home value is somewhere in the neighborhood of $200,000 less than what it was.  This is a tough pill to swallow.  My advice to buyers is now is a good time to buy, but waiting to see what home prices do this winter wouldn't be a bad idea, either.

Thursday, May 29, 2008

S.F. Bay Area home sales edge up in April

Okay, so this isn't earth shattering news, but the fact that Bay Area homes are up from March to April more than normal is a good sign.  In the Tri-Valley area, normal sales increase from March to April is 4.3% and we saw 15.9%.  That's almost a 4x increase.  However, sales volumes are still the lowest for April in many years.  And this is just one data point, so it isn't very telling of a trend.  Keep an eye on what the market does in the coming months.  For the market to recover, I believe that a lot of the inventory needs to get cleared out, and that is going to happen when prices get low enough to drive the bargain shoppers to act.  When inventory gets low, then prices can start to rise, but not likely until then.  So we need to see increased sales volumes to see this market recover.